If the current memory chip price increases seem to have already strained tech companies, mid-term forecasts from major manufacturers paint an even harsher scenario.
Kwak Noh-jung, the CEO of SK Hynix, has recently issued worrying statements about supply chain dynamics, indicating 2027 as the most critical year ever recorded in the industry’s history.
The marked discrepancy between the production of traditional modules and the voracious demand for AI data centers will prolong the supply-demand imbalance for some time.
SK Hynix warns, 2027 will be the worst year ever
An in-depth analysis of global manufacturing capacity reveals that the annual increase in wafer supply will stand at a meager 12% in the two-year period between 2027 and 2028.
This production expansion will fail to ease pressure on the market, as about half of the new volumes will be fully absorbed by HBM memories (High Bandwidth Memory).
Supply projections confirm the trend: Samsung expects to move from 12 billion GB of HBM memories produced in 2026 to as many as 20 billion GB per year the following year.
Parallelly, SK Hynix will intensify its efforts, increasing production from 18 billion to 24 billion GB in the same time frame. This massive wafer allocation will inevitably divert critical resources away from other fabrication lines.
The large gap between traditional DRAM and market demands
The direct consequence of this repositioning will hit the DRAM segment not tied to the HBM standard hard. In this specific category, availability growth will be strictly limited to an annual rate of 15% between 2027 and 2028.
A pace entirely insufficient to meet international demand which, according to analysts, will register a 22% increase.
New foundries currently under development will attempt to curb this deep disparity, though long ramp-up cycles impose considerable waiting times. On SK Hynix’s side, the Y1 factory in Yongin will come online only in February 2027, while the Y2 plant will begin commercial operations in the second half of 2028.
Looking at competitors’ moves, Samsung’s P5 Fab 1 hub will start assembly lines by July 2027; however, P5 Fab 2 and the additional Yongin center will require completion timelines that extend until 2029.
The uncertainty of Chinese exports
An element capable of partially easing tension on global supply chains could lie in CXMT’s strategies.
The Chinese company is currently evaluating a gradual shift toward DDR6 memories, a move that would theoretically inject new volumes into the market.
Despite these maneuvers, the Chinese company’s operating calendars remain shrouded in uncertainty. There are also strong doubts about the real ability of the producer to sustain massive exports outside of China, leaving intact for now the difficult structural forecasts formulated by the leadership of SK Hynix for the critical two-year period looming ahead.
