The global smartphone market is going through a contraction phase that could continue through 2026. Data for the second quarter show, in fact, a drop in shipments year-over-year as well as compared to the first months of the year, while device prices continue to rise.
Forecasts for the year as a whole are even more negative, with an overall sales decline estimated at 12% by the end of 2026.
Smartphones Decline in 2026: Memory Crisis Slows the Market
During the second quarter of 2026, global smartphone shipments declined 7% year over year and 3% from the first quarter.
One of the main factors behind the slowdown is the global shortage of components (almost completely absorbed by AI centers), which has led to a sharp rise in memory prices. The effect on price tags was immediate: in Q2 2026 alone, the average price of new smartphones rose by 13% compared with the first three months of the year.
Outlook for the coming months does not indicate a reversal of the trend. The prices of new devices could indeed continue to rise throughout the second half of the year.
Buying a New Smartphone Becomes More Difficult
The overall picture therefore suggests a challenging phase for anyone thinking of changing their smartphone.
On one hand, new devices continue to become more expensive due to the component and memory crises. On the other hand, the used market is also starting to feel the higher demand and the scarcity of available products.
Despite everything, refurbished and second-hand smartphones remain, for now, one of the most practical options for those looking to keep costs down.
Regarding the future, uncertainty persists: on one hand there are dire visions, even talking about a decade-long crisis; on the other hand, a turnaround in 2027 is expected thanks to a massive influx of Chinese memory into the market.
The rise in costs is not hitting all markets equally
Europe and North America have seen relatively modest declines, while emerging markets have suffered more pronounced downturns. In these areas, greater price sensitivity among users makes the impact of the price hikes heavier.
The most evident consequence of price increases is the growth in demand for used and refurbished smartphones. More and more users are considering cheaper alternatives to new devices, pushing sales of second-hand phones to grow by 3% year over year.
For all of 2026, the used market could approach a near 10% increase. The higher demand is, however, starting to have effects on the prices of refurbished devices.
Available supply is, in fact, unable to grow at the same pace, and this is gradually pushing up the prices of second-hand devices as well.
Buying a New Smartphone Becomes More Difficult
The overall picture therefore suggests a challenging phase for anyone thinking of changing their smartphone.
On one hand, new devices continue to become more expensive due to the component and memory crises. On the other hand, the used market is also starting to feel the higher demand and the scarcity of available products.
Despite everything, refurbished and second-hand smartphones remain, for now, one of the most practical options for those looking to keep costs down.
Regarding the future, uncertainty persists: on one hand there are dire visions, even talking about a decade-long crisis; on the other hand, a turnaround in 2027 is expected thanks to a massive influx of Chinese memory into the market.
