The smartphone market in 2026 for Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo: price hikes and downward forecasts

The global smartphone sector is bracing for a 2026 characterized by strong instability, mainly due to the sharp rise in the cost of key components. The pressure from the constrained memory supply and the rapid price increases, which began in the second half of 2025, is weighing heavily on the market.

This is not only affecting production costs within companies, but is already translating into an increase in final prices for consumers, leading to a consequent contraction of demand. In this scenario, the strategies of the main Chinese manufacturers (such as Xiaomi, vivo and OPPO) are changing drastically: desperate times, desperate measures — as the saying goes.

The 2026 for Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo: smartphone orders down by as much as 20% and a year that looks bleak from the start

The impact of the component crisis is distributed unevenly among the sector’s players, hitting particularly hard the brands that target mid-range volumes. Leading companies such as Xiaomi and OPPO would already have proceeded to cut annual orders for 2026 by more than 20%, while vivo would have reduced its forecasts by almost 15%. Transsion would have brought its target below the 70 million units threshold.

The cuts primarily affect mid- to lower-range smartphones and products destined for foreign markets, which are more sensitive to rising costs of DRAM and NAND Flash memory.

On the other hand, giants like Apple and Samsung currently seem less vulnerable to these direct price hikes, while other brands like Huawei, Lenovo and Honor are trying to capitalize on the situation to gain new market shares.

Analyses conducted by TrendForce indicate that, although tech companies intend to keep production plans stable for the first quarter of 2026, the effect of the price hikes will become evident starting from the second quarter of the year.

Many brands have adopted an aggressive memory-purchasing strategy to prevent future shortages or further price spikes, building up inventories that, however, risk turning into stock excesses if retail sales do not improve rapidly.

For this reason, the period between the second and third quarters of 2026 will be crucial: companies will have to recalibrate their respective device lines, revising technical specifications and pricing strategies to mitigate the rising costs. In many cases, this could lead to the cancellation of higher-end variants, such as 1 TB models in the mid-to-high range, or to a general lowering of hardware specifications.

After a positive 2025 for the smartphone sector, global forecasts have been drastically revised downward: the year-over-year production decline has increased from 2% to 7%.

According to IDC experts, the duration of what is defined as an unprecedented memory-chip shortage will determine the magnitude of the market contraction. In this period of uncertainty, the ability to control the supply chain and manage costs will become the real differentiating factor for the survival and success of manufacturers, while the average selling prices will continue to rise despite the overall shipment decline.

The 2026 looks set to be a year of deep change for the tech industry, where the usual race for performance will have to contend with the economic reality of production costs.