The start of 2026 is marking a complex chapter for the technology industry, characterized by a dizzying rise in component costs that risks weighing heavily on consumers and businesses.
According to a recent report published by the analysis company Counterpoint, the prices of DRAM and NAND memories have registered a jump exceeding 90% in the first quarter of the current year.
The data, updated to February 2026, depict a scenario of supply shortages that is affecting across the board both the personal computer sector and, even more critically, the server sector.
NAND and DRAM prices, an unprecedented escalation
Already in Q4 2025 there were first signs of tension, with the prices of PC memories increasing by 35% and those for the servers rising by 76%. However, what seemed a manageable increase turned into a real explosion of costs in the first months of 2026.
Current estimates indicate that the prices of PC memories and NAND will respectively exceed 90% and 100% increases, effectively doubling previous quotations. Even more critical is the situation in the enterprise world: for servers, price increases approaching 98% for memories and 90% for NAND storage are expected.
This dynamic has created a paradox for semiconductor manufacturers. If on one hand the supply chain is under stress, on the other operating margins have reached historical highs. A surprising finding emerged: for the first time, the margins of conventional DRAM have surpassed those of the expensive HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), with operating profits that touched the 60% threshold already by the end of 2025.
This scenario suggests that chip manufacturers are set to register record profits, establishing a new standard of profitability that could make an eventual future market downturn particularly painful.
The manufacturers’ response and near-term forecasts
Facing procurement costs nearly tripled for some high-end DDR5 kits, OEMs are forced to rethink their industrial strategies. Jeongku Choi, Senior Analyst cited in the report, describes the situation as a “double hit” for device manufacturers: the rise in component costs clashes with weakened consumer purchasing power.
The immediate reaction of companies has been to reduce the amount of memory installed per device or, alternatively, to focus almost exclusively on premium product lines equipped with LPDDR5, where it is easier to absorb and justify the increases by offering added perceived value to the end user.
Unfortunately, forecasts for the near future leave no room for optimism. Analyses indicate that the upward curve of prices has not yet reached its peak. For the second quarter of 2026, a further average increase between 15% and 20% is expected, driven by an unprecedented demand linked to AI infrastructure.
Although some signals indicate a possible flattening of the curve, many industry insiders and various industrial sources suggest that market normalization may not occur before the second half of 2027 or even the beginning of 2028.
Until then, the sector will have to navigate choppy waters, with solutions coming from the Chinese market that are beginning to be observed with growing interest as a possible lifeline to mitigate the crisis.
