The tech sector is facing a new phase of uncertainty that hits the very heart of smartphones. According to Counterpoint Research data, global SoC shipments posted an 8% decline year over year in the first quarter of 2026.
This is not an isolated event, but the signal of a perfect storm caused by a severe memory shortage and geopolitical tensions that are forcing manufacturers to drastically rethink their launch plans and pricing strategies. For end users, it translates into a tighter market where innovation seems to slow to cope with production costs that have become unsustainable.
The smartphone chip market slows: memory crisis slows innovation until 2028
The primary cause of the slowdown lies in the vertiginous rise in memory prices, up 50-55% in the first quarter of 2026 alone and expected to jump a further 80-85% in the following quarter. This situation has created a split in the market: while the premium segment has shown some resilience, with manufacturers able to pass the cost increases onto consumers, the budget tier has had to adopt more aggressive containment strategies.
Major names such as Qualcomm and MediaTek have suffered declines in shipments, penalized respectively by weaker demand for flagship models and competitive pressure in the entry-level segment.
On the contrary, companies such as Apple, Samsung, and Google managed to post positive growth thanks to a highly integrated supply chain. A surprising note concerns UNISOC, which gained significant market shares in low-cost 4G and 5G segments, becoming the preferred choice for volume-oriented brands like Redmi and POCO.
Outlook for the coming months remains complex, and Counterpoint experts expect memory shortages to persist at least until early 2028, the period of a possible return to normality for the supply chain.
At this point, a further drop in SoC shipments in Q2 2026 seems likely. Many manufacturers are already delaying the debut of new chipsets or updated versions of their devices to better manage resources and product development.
